Oil Sales Declined 14% in August 2024

Staff Report:

Pakistan’s Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.21 million tons in August 2024, representing a 14% year-on-year (YoY) decrease, primarily due to the monsoon season. However, there was a 2% month-on-month (MoM) increase, attributed to a full working month in contrast to July, which was affected by the Moharram holidays.

Total sales for the first two months of fiscal year 2025 (2MFY25) amounted to 2.4 million tons, marking a 12% YoY decline compared to 2.8 million tons in 2MFY24.Oil sales in Pakistan recover by 9% MoM in October 2022

Excluding furnace oil (Ex-FO), sales in August 2024 were 1.2 million tons, reflecting an 11% YoY decrease but a 3% MoM rise. For 2MFY25, Ex-FO sales totaled 2.3 million tons, a 9% YoY decline.

Motor Spirit (MS) sales declined by 7% YoY but increased by 6% MoM to 625,000 tons in August 2024. This was due to the reduction in petrol prices by Rs14.64 per liter to Rs260.96 per liter, and the resumption of activities such as the start of the school season, among other factors.

High-Speed Diesel (HSD) sales saw a 17% YoY and a 2% MoM decline, primarily due to the monsoon season.

Furnace oil (FO) sales for August 2024 fell by 45% YoY and 17% MoM to 65,000 tons. This decrease is believed to be due to lower power generation from FO-based power plants.

Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) reported sales of 114,000 tons in August 2024, a 24% YoY decline, primarily driven by a 63% YoY drop in FO sales. However, there was a 12% MoM increase due to a 37% rise in FO sales.

Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a 27% YoY and 3% MoM decrease in sales, totaling 528,000 tons in August 2024. PSO’s market share in HSD and MS stood at 44.1% and 40.3%, respectively, down 192 basis points (bps) and 102 bps MoM in August 2024. Overall, PSO’s market share declined from 46% in July 2024 to 43% in August 2024.

Shell Pakistan (SHEL) experienced a 6% YoY decline but a 7% MoM increase in sales, reaching 92,000 tons. HASCOL sales were recorded at 42,000 tons, up 18% YoY and 9% MoM.

The government has set a Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) collection target of Rs1.28 trillion for FY25, of which Rs166 billion (13%) has been collected in the first two months, according to our calculations.