Cement Dispatches Expected to Decline in September 2023
By Newztodays Team
Pakistan’s total Cement Dispatches in September 2023 are anticipated to decrease by 5-9% YoY and 10-14% MoM.
Local cement dispatches are likely to experience a decline of 9-13% YoY and MoM. This drop in sales can be attributed to heavy rains in the northern regions of the country, the unavailability of transportation due to crop cultivation, and one less working day owing to a holiday.
Based on these figures, the average daily domestic sales for the sector are projected to reach 113,000 tons/day in September 2023, compared to the five-year average September sales of 124,000 tons/day.
The fiscal year 2024 got off to a challenging start as sales decreased by 20% MoM in July 2023 due to heavy rains. However, there was a rebound in August 2023 with a MoM increase of 37% to 3.8 million tons, primarily attributed to a favorable low base effect.
Exports in September 2023 are expected to increase by 21-25% YoY but decline by 17-21% MoM, reaching a total of 0.59 million tons. This fluctuation is driven by reduced coal prices and a significant devaluation of the Pakistani Rupee (PKR) against the US dollar.
In the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 (1QFY24E), cement sales are likely to increase by approximately 21-23% YoY, with local sales showing a rise of 15-17% YoY.
This double-digit growth can be attributed to the low base effect from the previous year. It’s worth mentioning that the country was affected by floods in July and August 2022, which hindered construction activities.
Expectations are for local cement dispatches to grow by 5% to reach 42 million tons due to improved farmers’ income and economic stability.
Additionally, exports are anticipated to grow by 8%, reaching 5 million tons in FY24, bringing the total cement dispatches to 47 million tons, a 5% YoY increase.Pakistan Cement Sales up in Nov
According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the average retail price in September 2023 was Rs1,207 per bag, marking a 3.3% MoM increase in the North and Rs1,168 per bag, with a marginal 0.1% MoM decrease in the South.
