DAP offtake continues to remain on higher side

Aftab Ahmed

Islamabad: The DAP offtake has continued to remain on higher side during month of March 2021 compared to the corresponding period last year.

The availability of DAP in Kharif season will also remain under stress due to stress on DAP offtake after June, 2021. The prices of DAP are at the highest level and the importers are reluctant to import DAP at such a high price.

Kharif 2021 started with an opening stock of 55,000 of DAP. Domestic production is estimated around 420,000 tonnes and offtake is expected around 1,012,000 tonnes indicating a deficit of 369,000 tonnes at end of Kharif 2021.

Total fertilizer nutrient offtake during March 2021 was about 293,000 tonnes, which represented an increase of 29.2 per cent over March 2020.

Nitrogen offtake increased by 18.7 per cent while phosphate increased by 62.2 per cent. Potash offtake witnessed a significant increase of 87.0 per cent over previous March 2020.

In product terms, urea offtake was 343,000 tonnes, which exhibited an increase of 13.4 per cent. DAP offtake was 144,000 tonnes, recording a significant increase of 81.4 per cent over March 2020.

Fertilizer offtake during Rabi 2020-21

The cumulative nutrient offtake during Rabi 2020-21 was about 2,556,000 tonnes, witnessing an increase of 12.8 per cent over the same time frame of Rabi 2019-20.

Nitrogen offtake increased by 14.4 per cent, whereas phosphate offtake increased by 7.0 per cent over previous Rabi season. Potash offtake witnessed an increase of 41.3 per cent. As far as fertilizer products are concerned, urea consumption during Rabi 2020-21 was 3,225,000 tonnes showing an increase of 12.3 per cent and supply was 1,105,000 tonnes showing an increase of 2.4 per cent over same time frame of previous season.

Fertilizer production and imported supplies Production of all fertilizer products during March 2021 was about 724,000 tonnes. Out of which, urea production was 514,000 tonnes which accounts for 71 per cent of total products.

Other products were as DAP 66,000 tonnes, CAN 57,000 tonnes, Nitrophos 60,000 tonnes, SSP 12,000 tonnes, NPK’s 14,000 tonnes and SOP 1000 tonnes.

Imported supplies were around 98,000 tonnes comprising of 81,000 tonnes of DAP, 4,000 tonnes of SOP, 3000 tonnes of MOP and 9700 tonnes of MAP.

PRICE TREND Domestic

Prices of DAP, NP, SSP, SOP and NPKs increased significantly by 13.7, 9.5, 6.3, 3.1 and 9.0 per cent, respectively as compared with previous month. Prices of urea (sona) and CAN increased slightly by 0.6 and 0.3 per cent, respectively.

International Prices

Urea FOB bulk China price was at US $ 335-355/t. Fob bulk, Middle East urea price was seen at US $ 355-360/t. DAP price remained in the range of US $ 531-574/t in Australia and US $ 550-570/t in China. Ex-Karachi price of imported urea was in the range of Rs. 3,417 to Rs. 3661 per 50 kg bag while that of DAP was Rs. 4,919 to Rs. 5,272 per 50 kg bag.

OUTLOOK FOR KHARIF 2021

Urea Kharif 2021 started with inventory of 298,000 tonnes of urea. Total availability of urea is estimated around 3,531,000 tonnes comprising of 3,232,000 tonnes of domestic production.

The offtake during Kharif 2021 is expected to be around 3,033,000 tonnes. Closing balance for Kharif 2021 will be 498,000 tonnes.