Inflation in February 2024 up 23.06%

Staff Report

Pakistan’s CPI inflation in February 2024 clocked in at 23.06% YoY in Feb-2024 compared to 28.34% in Jan-2024. This came better than industry expectations.

This is the lowest inflation in 20 months. It is down from a peak of 37.97% seen in May 2023.

On an MoM basis, CPI inflation remained flatter with just a 0.03% rise in Feb-2024 compared to an increase of 1.8% in Jan-2024. This muted MoM rise in inflation is way lower than the last 3 months average increase of 1.8%.

In 8MFY24 average inflation clocked in at 28.03% compared to 26.16% in 8MFY23.

Core inflation (NFNE) in Urban areas increased to 15.5% YoY in Feb 2024 vs 17.8% YoY witnessed last month. However, MoM inflation increased by 0.3% in Feb 2024 compared to 1.1% in Jan 2024.

Core inflation in Rural areas increased to 21.9% in Feb 2024 vs 24.6% in Feb 2024. On a MoM basis, inflation increased by 0.4% MoM vs 1.2% last month.

Food inflation in Feb 2024 was down 1.62% MoM. Food prices that have decreased on an MoM basis include Eggs (-32% MoM), Tomatoes (-25% MoM), Onions (-8% MoM), Tea (-8% MoM), and Potatoes (-6% MoM) among others.CPI inflation in Sep clocked in at 23.2%

However YoY uptick in food inflation was driven by an increase in the prices of Tomatoes (+114% YoY), Condiments and Spices (+53% YoY), Sugar (+53% YoY), Fresh Vegetables (+46% YoY), and Wheat Floor (+45% YoY) among others.

Housing, Water & Electricity which contributes 24% to the CPI, rose by 36.08% YoY and 1.78% MoM in Feb 2024. The MoM rise is attributed to an increase in the monthly fuel charges adjustment in the electricity tariff.

Transport index which comprises fuel prices increased by 2.11% MoM and 15.00% YoY in Feb 2024.