What would Japan be like in 2040?US Makes A calculated Forecast

By Zeeshan Javaid

By 2040, Japan will face many demographic and macroeconomic challenges, including a shrinking labor force (the oldest of any developed country), low demand and economic growth, deflation, declining savings rates, and increased government debt.

The National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) report, ‘Global Trends 2040,’ identifies four structural forces that will shape the future – demographics, the environment, economics, and technology – and assesses how they influence decisions and outcomes.

It also mentions five potential scenarios for the world in 2040, based on different combinations of structural forces, emerging dynamics, and key uncertainties.

The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community says that the birth rate remains low and the median age rises; in most developed and a handful of emerging economies, Japan will see its population peak and shrink by 2040.

World Population in 2040 and Japan

During the next 20 years, the world’s population will continue to increase every year, adding approximately 1.4 billion people annually, to reach an estimated 9.2 billion by 2040. Still, the rate of population growth will slow in all regions.

Population growth in most Asia will decline quickly, and after 2040, the population will begin to contract. India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country despite slowing population growth around 2027.

Countries with highly aged populations like China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe will face constraints on economic growth in the absence of adaptive strategies, such as automation and increased immigration.

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The combination of fewer children per woman and people living longer will see the global population age rise from about 31 years in 2020 to 35 years in 2040, which is both an opportunity and a burden. Japan is likely to reach a median age of more than 53 in 2040, up from 46.

With the rapid increase in the median and older population, Japan will likely see further productivity slowdown in the coming decades because older workers usually show fewer productivity gains.

They will divert a greater share of the national income to pensions and health care for the elderly.

Global Trends 2040

Most developed and a few emerging economies, including Japan, China, Russia, and many European countries, will see their populations peak and shrink by 2040 as birth rates remain low.

The median age rises, according to the report ”Global Trends 2040.”

On the other hand, Sub-Saharan Africa will account for roughly two-thirds of global population growth and is on track to nearly double its current population by 2050, putting significant strains on infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

Japan’sJapan’s population has decreased raising concern about the future of Japan. There are many causes, such as the declining birth rates and the ratio of men to women since the last measurements in 2006 and 2010.

By 2060, the population of Japan is expected to drop from 125.71 million to 86.74 million, according to the Japanese Health Ministry.

While working to diversify security and economic relationships, particularly with Australia, India, Taiwan, and Vietnam, Japan is likely to remain highly economically dependent on China, its largest trading partner and main regional rival, and a close ally of the United States.

The author is a senior journalist based in Islamabad who focuses on international affairs, a global energy, and political engineering.