Local cement dispatches likely to Rise by 3% in September 2025
Pakistan local cement dispatches are likely to be up by 3% YoY to clock in at 3.08mn tons in September2025. Dispatches are anticipated to decline by 1% MoM. Our analysis is based on the actual numbers of 21 days; wherein local sales stand at 2.15mn tons,” says Topline Pakistan Research.
The average domestic sale of north in first week (working days) was 90k per day, second week 96k per day and in third week it went high at 108k per day. For last 4th week we have assumed average of 107k per day.Pakistan Cement Sales up in Nov
Average sales of south region has averaged in range of 10-18k per day, while for remaining week we have assumed average of 15k per day (working days).
The MoM decrease in local cement dispatches is primarily due to ongoing floods. However, towards the third week, overall sales improved.
The decline in South dispatches (-28% YoY, -33% MoM) is attributable to the uncertain situation arising from ongoing floods. While north is gradually recovering in terms of sales volumes.
Exports during Sep 2025 are anticipated to decline by 15% YoY while up 11% MoM. The YoY decline is owing to disruptions stemming from ongoing floods.
This takes Pakistan’s total cement sales to around 3.9mn tons in Sep-2025, expected to be down by 1% YoY, while up 2% MoM.
In 1QFY26, total cement sales are expected to increase by around 12% YoY, driven by a 10% YoY rise in local sales, while exports are anticipated to grow by 21% YoY.
Total cement capacity utilization in Sep-25 is estimated to clock in at 55% vs 55% in Sep-24 and 56% in Sep-23.
Average retail prices in Sep-25 remained flattish MoM in both the North and South, as per weekly SPI data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
We maintain our base case assumption of 8% YoY growth in local dispatches due to pickup in construction activities and monetary easing,” Topline said.
