OMC’s Sales in March Up 4% YoY after 21 Months
Staff Report
Pakistan Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) recorded sales of 1.15 million tons, up 4% YoY and 3% MoM in March 2024. Ex-Furnace Oil (FO) sales were up 9% YoY and 4% MoM in March 2024.
The increase in YoY oil sales comes after 21 months. Improvement in oil sales signals some stability in economic activities.
MoM’s jump in OMC’s sales is due to a lower base amid fewer days in February 2024 and expectations of an increase in fuel prices.
On a YoY basis, although the EX-FO sales are up 9%, the sales would be even higher if there were no smuggling of oil from Iran. As per the media, around 4,000 tons of oil are being smuggled every day.
FO sales for March 2024 fell by 48% YoY and 11% MoM to 44,000 tons. This decrease is attributed to lower power generation from FO-based power plants.
MS sales were up 3% YoY and 5% MoM to 573,000 tons, while HSD sales increased by 17% YoY and 4% MoM to 463,000 tons in March 2024.
This takes 9MFY24 total sales to 11.3 million tons, down 11% YoY while Ex-FO sales are down by 5% YoY as compared to 12.8 million tons in 9MFY23.
Average petrol prices rose by 19% YoY from Rs235.71/liter in 9MFY23 compared to Rs281.67/liter in 9MFY24. This contributed to the 5% YoY fall in MS sales to 5.3 million tons in 9MFY24 vs 5.6 million tons in 9MFY24.
Similarly, average diesel prices also rose by 16% YoY from Rs248.5/liter in 9MFY23 to Rs289.31/liter in 9MFY24, contributing to the 5% YoY fall in HSD sales.
Among the listed entities, Attock Petroleum (APL) sales clocked in at 103,000 tons, a 9% YoY and 8% MoM decline in March 2024. FO sales fell by 58% YoY and 9% MoM which mainly contributed to the fall in APL sales.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) saw a rise of 11% YoY and a 5% MoM rise to 594,000 tons in March 2024. April Fools’ Day Surprise: Petrol Prices Soar by Rs 9.66/Liter
FO saw a significant 66% YoY and 67% MoM in Mar-2024. PSO’s market share increased from 49% in March 2023 to 51% in March 2024.
Shell Pakistan (SHEL) saw a 6% YoY and a 5% MoM rise to 94,000 tons. HSD sales are up 8% YoY and flat MoM and MS sales are up 1% YoY and 7% MoM in Mar-2024.
For FY24, we anticipate that total EX-FO sales will remain under pressure due to the smuggling of oil from Iran due to higher local prices.
Furthermore, OMC sales could further decline if the government increases the Petroleum Development Levy from Rs60/liter to Rs100/liter or imposes an 18% GST.
