Pakistan Economy FY24: GDP Grows 2.38%, Agricultural Sector Hits 18-Year High

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Islamabad.Staff Report
Pakistan has provisionally achieved a GDP growth of 2.38% during FY24, compared to a contraction of 0.2% in FY23, analysts said.
Ministry of Finance (MoF) has released the Economic Survey of Pakistan for FY23-24. Based on this survey and the numbers reported by the National Accounts Committee (NAC).

However, the growth for FY24 is lower than the long-term average of 4.7% and the last five-year average growth of 2.6%.
This FY24 growth figure of 2.38% is higher than the projections by the IMF and World Bank, which were 2.0% and 1.8%, respectively, published in April-May 2024.Economic Woes Result in Less Electricity Usage in Dec
Agriculture growth at 18-year high and its contribution to GDP at a 9-year high:** The agriculture sector posted its highest growth of 6.25% in 18 years (FY05: +6.8%), compared to the 5-year average growth of 3.0%. Within this sector, important crops showed a growth of 16.8%, led by a 108% increase in cotton and a 35% increase in rice. As a result, the agricultural sector’s contribution to total GDP is at 24.04% in FY24, the highest in 9 years.
Rice production has reached an all-time high of 9.9 million tons compared to 7.3 million tons last year. The previous high was 9.3 million tons in FY22.
Wheat production is also at an all-time high of 31.4 million tons compared to 28.2 million tons last year.
Industrial sector growth at 1.2%:** The industrial sector is expected to post a growth of 1.2% in FY24. Within this sector, mining, manufacturing, and construction are likely to grow by 4.8%, 2.4%, and 6%, respectively, while the electricity, gas, and water supply sector is expected to decline by 10.5%.
Within manufacturing, the LSM sector is now showing a V-shaped recovery in 3QFY24, with a growth of 1.47%. Approximately 50% of the subsectors have recovered and posted positive growth.
Services sector growth at 1.2%:** The services sector is expected to post a growth of 1.2% in FY24 compared to a flat change in FY23. Within services, the heavyweight wholesale and retail trade is set to witness meager growth of 0.3% compared to a 4% decline in FY23, while the transport and storage segment is likely to post growth of 1.2% in FY24 compared to 3.8% in FY23.