Pakistan’s oil sale in June 2023 up by 4% MoM basis

Staff Report

Pakistan’s oil sale in June 2023 clocked in at 1.3mn tons, down 31% YoY, however, up by 4% MoM.

The increase was mainly driven by MS increasing by 7% MoM and Furnace Oil (FO) by 10% MoM. HSD sales, however, remained flat.MS sales for June-23 increased by 7% MoM to 0.64mn tons.

This is mainly due to 1) the seasonal effect of holidays and summer vacations and 2) slightly lower MoM prices. Ogra Proposes Imprisonment up to 10 Years for Illegal Oil Storage and Sale

FO sales increased by 10% MoM to 100k tons due to higher demand for power generation.

Total oil sales excluding furnace oil clocked in at 1.2mn tons in June-23, down 16% YoY and up 3% MoM.

Among listed entities, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) sales for June-23 declined by 38% YoY to 646k tons.

This was due to lower sales in FO (-97% YoY) followed by HSD (-22% YoY). Shell Pakistan (SHEL) sales for June-23 decreased by 37% YoY to 95k tons.

This was due to a 53% YoY decline in HSD sales and a 20% decline in MS sales. While Attock Petroleum (APL) sales declined by 26% YoY to 150k tons.

This was due to a 46% YoY decline in FO, 21% in HSD, and 7% in MS.PSO market share for June-23 stood at 48% vs. 53% in Jun-22 and 46% in May-23. SHEL share for June-23 stood at 7.1% vs. 7.9% in June-22 and 6.9% in May-23.

Whereas, APL share for June-23 stood at 11.2% vs. 10.4% in June-22 and 9.5% in May-23.In 4QFY23, OMC sales stood at 3.8mn tons which is an increase of 1% QoQ and a decline of 40% compared to 4QFY22.

During FY23, oil sales are down 27% YoY to 16.6mn tons. Higher petroleum product prices and an overall slowdown in the economy have made a dent in demand.

This is the lowest OMC sales number since FY06, excluding the COVID year of FY20. In FY06 OMC sales were recorded at 14.6mn tons, according to Pakistan Energy Yearbook.

Product wise FO and HSD have witnessed major drops with a decline of 49% and 28% YoY respectively, while MS sales declined by 17% YoY in FY23.

HSD and MS sales declined due to higher product prices in FY23. FO declined due to lower demand from power generation.

HSD sale price stood at an average of Rs255/liter in FY23 compared to the average price of Rs145/liter in FY22.

This is an increase of 76% YoY. On the other hand, the MS sale price stood at an average of Rs245/liter in FY23 compared to the average price of Rs148/liter in FY22.

This is an increase of 66% YoY.OMC sales (Excluding Furnace Oil) stood at 14.5mn tons in FY23 which is a decline of 22% YoY.

This is the lowest number since FY15 (Ex-COVID). In FY23, PSO’s market share declined slightly to 50% compared to 51% in FY22.

A slight decline in PSO market share is mainly due to FO, with sales declining by 64% vs an industry decline of 49%. While SHEL market share stood at 7.6% vs. 7.7% in FY22 and APL share stood at 9.6% vs. 9.3% in FY22.