India’s Gasoline Demand May Peak by 2035 amid EV Growth
India’s gasoline consumption is anticipated to reach its zenith by 2035, driven largely by the country’s increasing shift toward electric vehicles and alternative fuels. This projection comes from A S Sahney, chairman of Indian Oil Corporation, the nation’s largest state-owned refiner, who highlighted these emerging trends at a recent industry event in Goa.
Demand Dynamics Across Fuel Types
Sahney explained that traditional petrol, known locally as motor spirit, is encountering stiff competition from rising ethanol blends and the growing adoption of battery-powered and natural gas vehicles. Meanwhile, other fuel segments such as diesel and jet fuel are expected to continue their upward trajectory, propelled by expanding industrial output and heightened air travel. Additionally, the demand for fuel oil and petroleum coke, which together comprise about 30% of refinery outputs, is also forecasted to grow.
Expanding Refinery Capacities and Biofuel Initiatives
India is not only managing shifting fuel demands but also scaling up its refining infrastructure to support both domestic consumption and exports. Oil Minister Hardeep Puri noted that the country’s refining capacity currently stands at 5.36 million barrels per day (bpd) and is expected to increase to 5.8 million bpd within a year, with a long-term target of 6.4 million bpd by 2032. This expansion reflects India’s resolve to fulfill global fuel demand, particularly amid a worldwide diesel supply crunch.
Moreover, to strengthen energy security amid fluctuating crude oil prices—especially given India’s reliance on Middle Eastern suppliers—efforts to promote biofuels are accelerating. Notably, in June, the government introduced a fuel blend containing 85% ethanol under its fuel flex mobility initiative. This move aims to reduce dependency on imported oil and support cleaner transportation options.
Why This Matters for Pakistan
India’s evolution in fuel demand and its strategic pivot toward electric vehicles and biofuels offer important lessons for Pakistan’s energy sector. Pakistan, like India, imports a significant portion of its crude oil and faces similar vulnerabilities to global price volatility. As neighboring countries invest in renewable energy and EV infrastructure, Pakistan’s policymakers must consider strengthening domestic capacity for sustainable fuels and refining to seize economic and environmental benefits. India’s expanding refining footprint and biofuel adoption demonstrate potential pathways for regional energy resilience and reduced import dependency.
“Motor spirit is feeling pressure from all sides,” Sahney remarked, underscoring the transformative shift underway in India’s energy consumption patterns that echoes across the region.
