Pakistan’s Semi-Final Fate Hinges on England vs NZ

By Aftab Ahmed • February 26, 2026

Pakistan’s prospects of advancing to the semi-finals in the ongoing ICC T20 World Cup 2026 have become precarious following New Zealand’s 61-run victory over Sri Lanka in the Super Eight stage.

New Zealand’s win lifted their points tally to three and boosted their net run rate (NRR) to 3.050. In contrast, Pakistan remains behind with a negative net run rate of -0.461. For Pakistan to qualify, two conditions must be met: England must defeat New Zealand, and Pakistan needs a sizable victory margin over Sri Lanka to surpass New Zealand’s projected net run rate.

Understanding Net Run Rate

Net run rate is calculated as the difference between a team’s batting run rate and bowling run rate. Specifically:
Net Run Rate (NRR) = Batting Run Rate – Bowling Run Rate
Batting Run Rate = Total Runs Scored ÷ Overs Faced
Bowling Run Rate = Total Runs Conceded ÷ Overs Bowled

Scenario One: Pakistan Bats First

If Pakistan bats first and manages to score 180 runs, the maximum total Sri Lanka can score while still allowing Pakistan to maintain a higher NRR than New Zealand is 120 runs. This means Pakistan would need to restrict Sri Lanka to well under their total to have a chance of progressing.

The formula for NRR requires:
NRR = (Pakistan runs/overs) – (Sri Lanka runs conceded/overs bowled) ≥ 1.276 (New Zealand’s projected figure)

Scenario Two: Sri Lanka Bats First

Should Sri Lanka bat first and set a target of 180 runs, Pakistan must chase this total within approximately 14.1 overs to maintain an NRR above New Zealand’s. Efficient and aggressive batting will thus be crucial in this pursuit.

Calculation:
Pakistan’s NRR = (Runs scored ÷ Overs faced) – (180 ÷ 20) ≥ 1.275

Impact of England vs New Zealand Result

These scenarios hinge on England defeating New Zealand by a narrow margin, for example 180 to 170. Such a result limits New Zealand’s NRR increase and forces Pakistan into a challenging position, requiring large winning margins to surpass New Zealand.

If England wins by a larger margin, New Zealand’s net run rate would decrease, easing Pakistan’s qualification task. However, as matters currently stand, Pakistan faces an uphill challenge requiring flawless batting and disciplined bowling to achieve the extreme margins necessary to advance to the semi-finals.