Goldman Sees 17% Rise in Uranium Demand with SMR Growth
Goldman Sachs has updated its nuclear energy forecast to include the impact of small modular reactors (SMRs), projecting a 17% increase in uranium demand by 2045. This shift highlights the growing momentum of nuclear power as a key element in the global clean energy transition.
According to Goldman’s latest analysis, cumulative SMR deployments are expected to reach nearly 46 gigawatts (GW) by 2045. This addition boosts the bank’s nuclear generation forecast by 6%, resulting in an estimated 62 million pounds increase in uranium demand compared to previous long-term projections.
The study warns of a significant supply deficit, forecasting a shortfall of approximately 2.3 billion pounds of uranium between 2025 and 2045. This shortfall could pose challenges as both large-scale reactors and SMRs expand worldwide.
Uranium spot prices currently fluctuate in the mid-to-high $80s per pound, with term contract prices around $90 per pound. Utilities continue to secure long-term agreements at these elevated prices to mitigate supply risks amid growing demand.
Recent developments in North America underline this trend. In Canada, Bruce Power signed a memorandum of understanding with SaskPower to collaborate on nuclear reactor projects, including both large-scale reactors and SMRs. The cooperation aligns provincial and federal strategies to support nuclear energy expansion.
Meanwhile, in the United States, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has approved extended operation licenses for several nuclear plants. The Robinson Nuclear Power Plant in South Carolina received approval to operate up to 80 years, allowing it to function until 2050. Similarly, Florida Power & Light’s St. Lucie Units 1 and 2 were licensed for extended operations through the mid-21st century.
Additionally, Brookfield and The Nuclear Company announced a joint venture to potentially complete two AP1000 reactors at the VC Summer site in South Carolina, pending regulatory approvals and final investment decisions.
These developments reflect a broader trend toward embracing nuclear power’s reliability and low-carbon generation capabilities. The inclusion of SMRs in Goldman Sachs’ model marks a significant update, recognizing their potential to complement traditional large reactors and address energy needs with greater flexibility.
As global energy demand rises and countries seek to reduce carbon emissions, the role of nuclear power, supported by advances in reactor technology like SMRs, is expected to become increasingly prominent. However, addressing the projected uranium supply deficit will be critical to ensuring this growth is sustainable.