US Extends Waiver on Russian Crude to Support India
The United States has extended its waiver on restrictions related to Russian crude oil imports, providing crucial relief to India amidst ongoing disruptions in global oil supply chains. This move, confirmed on May 18, allows India to continue importing Russian crude oil despite broader sanctions impacting Moscow’s oil exports.
The waiver extension comes at a critical juncture for India, where Russian crude constitutes about 40% of the country’s total crude imports, which average approximately 4.5 million barrels per day (b/d). The waiver, originally introduced as an emergency response to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in March, permits imports of Russian crude that were already loaded on ships before the sanctions were imposed. It has now been extended twice, first in mid-April and again this month, each time for an additional 30 days.
India’s dependence on Russian crude has notably increased following the closure of key supply routes and a scarcity of alternative medium-sour crude oils in the Gulf region. India had already become the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude earlier in the year, importing 2.08 million b/d in March and 1.7 million b/d in April. Forecasts indicate imports could reach around 2.1 million b/d in May, underscoring the country’s increasing reliance on Russian oil to meet domestic demand.
Unlike India, China—the second-largest consumer of Russian crude—does not rely heavily on the waiver. China’s substantial crude oil inventories, estimated at over 1.23 billion barrels, provide greater buffer capacity to absorb supply shocks, along with a comparatively lower sensitivity to US-imposed sanctions on Russian oil.
India, in contrast, has a more limited inventory cushion, with crude stock levels decreasing from 106 million barrels before the Strait of Hormuz tensions escalated to roughly 90 million barrels by April. With daily consumption estimated between 5.5 million and 6 million barrels, the country’s oil reserves are nearing a precarious threshold.
The waiver extension is therefore a vital step in safeguarding Indian refineries against potential supply disruptions amid heightened geopolitical tensions and constrained flows from traditional Gulf suppliers. It ensures continuity in crude supplies at a time when alternatives are scarce, helping to stabilize India’s fuel supply and support its refining sector.
India has explicitly requested the US to maintain this concession, recognizing the strategic importance of uninterrupted access to Russian crude amid fluctuating global oil markets. The ongoing waiver enables New Delhi to navigate current challenges while it seeks to diversify its energy sources in the long term.
As India continues to balance its energy needs with international diplomatic considerations, this waiver extension provides temporary but critical support in managing the country’s energy security and economic stability.