US Extends Waiver to Sustain India’s Russian Oil Imports
The United States has extended its waiver on Russian crude oil imports to India, ensuring continued access to a critical energy supply amid ongoing global disruptions. This move comes at a pivotal time as Russian oil barrels account for nearly 40% of India’s crude import slate, a substantial share that underpins the operation of Indian refineries.
Initially introduced by the Trump administration on March 12 as an emergency response to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint affecting global oil shipments—the waiver initially allowed Russian crude and products loaded onto ships before that date to be exempt from US sanctions. The waiver was first extended in mid-April and has now been prolonged for an additional 30 days as of May 18, 2026.
India, which has repeatedly requested the extension, has benefited significantly from the waiver. The country’s refineries experienced severe challenges due to constrained flows from the Gulf region and a scarcity of medium-sour crude. The extended waiver effectively shields India’s crude supply, helping it maintain refining operations despite market turmoil and limited supply alternatives.
In recent months, India has been the largest purchaser of seaborne Russian crude. It imported approximately 2.08 million barrels per day (b/d) in March and about 1.7 million b/d in April, which represents roughly half of its average crude imports, estimated at 4.5 million b/d during this period. Projections for May indicate imports of around 2.1 million b/d of Russian crude.
In contrast, China—the second-largest buyer of Russian seaborne crude—imported 1.8 million b/d in March and 1.4 million b/d in April. Unlike India, China’s need for the waiver is less critical due to its robust crude stockpiles. China’s inventories increased slightly from 1.22 billion barrels in March to 1.23 billion barrels after the Gulf conflict intensified, allowing China to sustain its large domestic consumption of 14 to 15 million b/d for several months. India, meanwhile, has a much slimmer inventory cushion, with crude stocks decreasing from 106 million barrels in February to 90 million barrels by April, while consuming between 5.5 million and 6 million b/d.
The closure of Hormuz Strait has severely impacted India’s crude supply routes. The continued waiver allows India to maintain access to Russian oil, which is vital amid rising domestic fuel demand and limited alternative sources. Without this supply lifeline, India faces the risk of supply disruptions that could affect its refining capacity and energy security.
By securing the waiver extension, India mitigates immediate risks posed by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and market constraints. The decision underscores the importance of Russian crude in India’s energy mix and highlights the critical role of US policy in shaping global oil trade dynamics amid regional instabilities.