Pakistani Consumers To Suffer As Oil Price May Cross $100 in March

Pakistani oil consumers may suffer more shocks in coming days as Goldman Sachs now sees Brent averaging above $100 in March as the Strait of Hormuz disruption squeezes supply and keeps traders focused on prolonged war risk.

Pakistan is heavily dependent on oil imports which are at risk due to tension in Gulf region. Pakistan has recently arranged a few oil cargoes but there are still risks in coming days.

Pakistan has announced oil conservation measures recently to cut consumption of oil. Pakistan mainly imports oil from Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait which use Strait of Hormuz for oil supplies.

Pakistani consumers had faced Rs 55 per litre increase in petrol and diesel prices a week ago. They can suffer more if the prices cross $100 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs said on Friday, March 13, that Brent crude should average above $100 a barrel this month as the war in the Middle East damages energy infrastructure and disrupts flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank said Brent should then ease to about $85 in April, but warned that any longer outage could push prices sharply higher again. Reuters reported the revised call after Brent futures for May traded near $100.13 early on Friday, capping a volatile week that briefly took prices to $119.50, the highest level since mid-2022.

The bank also raised its fourth-quarter forecasts, putting Brent at $71 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $67, up from earlier calls of $66 and $62. Goldman said that base case still assumes the current disruption gradually fades.

It added that the quarter-end forecast may prove conservative if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut for longer. In that scenario, Brent could average about $93 in the fourth quarter, while spot prices could spike well above $100 in the coming weeks.

The warning comes as the International Energy Agency describes the current shock as the biggest oil supply disruption in market history.

The agency said March supply could drop by 8 million barrels per day, equal to nearly 8% of global demand, after the conflict choked Gulf production and shipping. To cushion the blow, the IEA’s 32 member countries agreed on March 11 to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest coordinated stock draw on record.

That release may steady sentiment later, but it does not immediately replace lost seaborne flows. Reuters reported that officials and traders still expect delays before those barrels reach refiners and consumers.

Read More: Govt Warns Strict Action Against Oil Hoarding

The same lag explains why prices stayed elevated even after governments announced emergency measures. Australia, for example, said on Friday it would also release part of its own fuel reserves, while warning that moving product through the supply chain would take time.

The market’s focus remains fixed on the Strait of Hormuz because of its outsized role in global energy trade. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said oil flows through the strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, equal to roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.

The IEA, using a narrower crude trade measure, said nearly 15 million barrels per day of crude passed through Hormuz in 2025, or almost 34% of global crude oil trade. Those figures explain why even a short closure can ripple through prices, freight rates and refining margins worldwide.

The price surge has unfolded against a softer longer-term demand backdrop, which helps explain why banks still see lower prices later this year. The IEA said in its March oil market report that global oil demand in 2026 is now expected to grow by 640,000 barrels per day, down 210,000 barrels per day from the previous month. It cited flight cancellations, weaker LPG demand and a more fragile economic outlook.

The U.S. EIA also said this week that it expects Brent to stay above $95 per barrel over the next two months before falling below $80 in the third quarter and toward $70 by year-end, assuming disruptions ease.

That split between near-term panic and softer year-end pricing has become the central market story. Goldman’s new forecast broadly matches that shape. It sees an acute supply shock today, followed by normalization if shipping lanes reopen and emergency stocks reach the market. Other analysts, cited by Reuters on Friday, also said prices could remain elevated in the near term but may stabilize later if the outage does not worsen.

For refiners, airlines and importing economies in Asia, the next few weeks matter more than year-end averages. The IEA notes that Asia absorbs most of the crude passing through Hormuz, with China and India taking a combined 44% of those exports in 2025. A prolonged interruption would therefore hit Asian buyers first through higher freight costs, longer rerouting and tighter product balances. It would also raise inflation risks just as many central banks were trying to lock in disinflation gains.

The latest Goldman Sachs call underscores that the oil market is pricing duration, not only disruption. If the conflict cools and tanker traffic resumes, Brent could still retreat toward the low $70s later in 2026, in line with Goldman and the U.S. EIA. But if the war extends and the Strait stays constrained, Goldman Sachs’ higher-risk scenario points to a much tighter market, renewed inflation pressure and a fourth quarter far stronger than current consensus suggests.