OPEC Oil Production Hits Lowest Since 2000 Amid Middle East Tensions
Oil production among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has fallen to its lowest level since the year 2000. According to a Reuters survey of OPEC’s output, the average daily production in May 2026 dropped to approximately 16.13 million barrels, marking a significant decline amid ongoing geopolitical challenges in the Middle East.
This recent production figure is lower than the levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, when demand for crude oil collapsed drastically. However, it should be noted that the May production data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which officially withdrew from OPEC at the start of the month.
The most pronounced decline has been observed in Iran, whose crude exports have plummeted to the lowest point in six years. This reduction is largely attributed to the naval blockade imposed by the United States, a response to Iran’s closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. The closure has also indirectly affected oil output in other Gulf countries.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, has suffered a dramatic loss as well. Its southern oil fields have seen production drop by nearly 70% since the U.S. and Israeli military engagements in Iran commenced. Iraq’s output currently averages around 1.3 million barrels per day, a stark decrease from the pre-conflict figure of 4.3 million barrels per day.
Conversely, Venezuela and Nigeria have recorded increases in their oil production, benefiting from their geographic distance from the regional hostilities. Venezuela’s exports rose modestly by 0.7% compared to April 2026, reaching an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day, representing a notable 61% increase year-over-year from May 2025. Nigeria’s total oil and condensate production reached 1.66 million barrels per day in May, with crude oil alone accounting for 1.49 million barrels daily, nearing its OPEC+ production quota.
In light of these production challenges, OPEC+ recently decided to increase its collective production quota by 188,000 barrels per day for July 2026, following earlier increases totaling 600,000 barrels daily since April. However, these quota adjustments currently reflect paper targets rather than actual supply due to the persistent disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict in the region.
The decline in OPEC’s oil output amid these geopolitical tensions has important implications for the global energy market, potentially affecting oil prices and energy security worldwide. With the Strait of Hormuz remaining a focal point of contention, the stability of oil production in the Middle East and beyond remains uncertain.
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